The Potential Magic of Release Dates

In 99, "The Matrix" made a gazillion dollars in March, since then, the summer season kickoff month has fluctuated from March to May.

Ok, let's talk film. The Hannah Montana movie drew in some pretty good crowds this weekend. 34 million for Miley Cyrus. However, that's not what I want to blog about. Hooray for the fans of Hannah Montana. I am glad they packed in the theaters. The thing to look at here is how hot April has been for the box office.
Look for studios vying up for this April time slot next year. You had Fast and Furious take in the biggest April opening ever with 71 mil. A week later you have Hannah Montana taking in 34 million. Execs are finding a new landing pad for Summer Tentpoles.
April is the new May. Last year, Iron man took in 103 million first week of May. Execs ran wild to fill that spot this year. The new Star Trek film changed it's release date from Christmas 09 to spring 09 in order to take that May time slot this year. So, Hollywood is continuing its mindset that specific dates are auspicious, lucky days and maybe not the films themselves. Sounds like Hollywood, of course it does.
This is one of the foremost reason why "Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince" was postponed from Christmas 08 to Spring 09 this year. up setting fans from here to Britain. Yet, execs want to give HP the The Dark Knight's release date, end of July. They think it will perform better in the supposed "charmed" release date.
So with the performance of Fast and Furious and the lukewarm showing of Hannah Montana, combined with the box office results of Iron Man last year, first week of May, you'll start to see the summer season starting earlier and earlier. Usually, the summer season doesn't start until Memorial Day weekend.
However, these sleeper tentpoles of the last two years, have begun to change that. Sleeper tentpoles are surprise money makers that produce more revenue than expected, acting as a projected major tentpole, yet made with a smaller budget.
So, as such, the summer season start will earlier next year than it did this year. It will most likely start the first week of April.
Studios still look at the first week of March as a lucky release date even today. "The Matrix" in 99 made a gazillion dollars and since then we have seen "300", "V for Vendetta", "Passion of the Christ" all making excellent money during March. So that date has proved hot and because of which, "Watchmen" was released this year and "10,000 BC" last year in hopes of making big numbers. While March does not start the beginning of summer, it is proof that execs think the dates are charmed and not the quality of the films themselves.
You have to remember that Hollywood execs expect certain films to do Gazillions of dollars and other films to make just millions. Last year, they expected "Incredible Hulk" and "Prince Caspian" to make gazillions cause they cost gazillions to make. Both films underperformed. While Iron Man and The Dark Knight did much better than expected. So Hollywood can project all they want, yet they will NEVER get it exactly right. Yet, everyone in Hollywood wants to stay working in Hollywood, so projections and a "musical chairs" of release dates are the future. So look for summer to begin earlier than usual next year. Maybe the groundhog of summer films is not seeing its shadow earlier and earlier each year.
Until tomorrow, let's talk film!